Concluding a horrific run of consecutive midweek games for 8 weeks straight, Blues travelled down the M1 to relegation threatened Northampton Town.
The last few games have become a little tiresome for me and I’m sure a few other fans too, so I can’t imagine how the players who’ve played most minutes in this run must feel like. Bouncing back from the disappointing defeat against Bolton, Blues recorded two routine wins against Lincoln and Stevenage before making the trip to the Cobblers.
I would usually write in depth about how each game went, but this time I’m going to cover the game in brief detail before discussing how the run has gone, how I feel about the final 11 games of the season and how this team can write themselves into the history books.
Davies opted for just the one change with Keshi Anderson coming in for Hansson, and so we lined up as follows: Allsop, Sampsted, Klarer, Davies, Cochrane, Paik, Iwata, Dowell, Willumsson, Anderson and Stansfield.
The match
The first half must be up (or down) there for some of the worst performances of the season. Northampton pressed high and in numbers, and that combined with the windy conditions meant we struggled to play, whether it be out from the back or through Allsop’s usually accurate long balls. We had a warning around the 14th minute when Allsop’s risky pass into midfield meant Paik lost out and Northampton won the ball high, but thankfully neither shot from McGeehan or Hoskins could take advantage. We didn’t heed that warning. Two minutes later, Allsop again opted to play short but this time to Iwata, and under pressure, he put the ball in the back of his own net off the post.
Blues looked way off it. Each pass looked lethargic, and Northampton aimed to punish at every opportunity whilst we could barely get out of our own third. Whilst McGeehan and Costello again failed to punish us with their chances from a header and a low shot from the edge respectively, Northampton had comfortably kept us at arms length.
Anderson was one of many who had a poor half, and I was just about to call for him to be subbed at half time before he got us back in the game against the run of play. After a rare spell of tidy passing, Klarer delivered a dangerous cross from the right and Keshi drifted into the box and headed home from the penalty spot excellently, taking us into half time at 1-1.
The second half showed a much improved performance. We lost the lethargic passing, picked up the tempo and looked far more dangerous as a result. Northampton dropped off from their high press and we settled into a more recognisable rhythm, but ultimately couldn’t find the winning goal. Stansfield placed his shot just wide of the post after being played in behind by Anderson, Iwata’s shot from the edge deflected fortuitously into the keeper’s midriff, Willumsson put yet another free header wide of the mark, Jukey’s right footed effort flew over the bar, Alfie’s left footed effort was tame and neither Jukey nor Dowell could get on the end of Paik’s low ball across the six yard box in stoppage time. At the other end, Blues were barely troubled as a result of our 78% possession in the second period.
It was a game of two halves, and in the end I think a draw was a fair result. Given our missed chances in the second half we might feel slightly unlucky, but Northampton could’ve made it a mountain for us to climb before half time.
I think the performance was plagued by both physical and mental fatigue. These players have played a lot of football, and have been expected to win almost every single game. And to be fair, they’ve nearly done that.
The run just gone
Since January 11th we’ve played a total of 18 games. That’s nearly half a Premier League season in 63 days, and an average of a game every 3.5 days.
Out of those 18 games we’ve picked up 13 wins, 3 away draws to 2nd placed Wrexham, playoff challenging Reading and relegation battling Northampton, as well as just two defeats against Premier League (and League Cup winners) Newcastle United and a rejuvenated, impressive Bolton side. It’s almost impossible to win every single game of football, even with the riches we’ve been blessed with this season. The lads should be proud of what they’ve done in this run – even more so considering now we’ve played every top half opponent except Barnsley.
We’ve pulled away from the pack in the league and sit 15 points clear of 3rd place Wycombe with promotion and the title almost a certainty. We reached the 4th round of the FA Cup and put on a show against Newcastle, and we’ve got our own trip to Wembley coming up as a result of us reaching the Vertu Trophy final.
We’re on course for a league and cup double, and points records are still within reach. Yes, we’ve had slip ups, but looking at the bigger picture, we’re on target to reach the lofty expectations placed on us this season.
The players have earned their break. Whilst the likes of Paik, Stansfield, Hanley, Willumsson and Harris have been summoned by their national sides, minutes are likely to be more restricted than those under their belts for Blues, and those who aren’t representing their country will be enjoying a short period of rest before the run in. Klarer, Davies, Cochrane, Iwata and Dowell have all played a lot of football and will need this break to recover. And they really should make the most of it, as upon their return we will be playing another intense run of fixtures right up until the end of the season.
The last 11 games
Whilst we’ve been largely excellent, we’ve achieved nothing yet. Soon it’ll be time for the players to dig deep and play through 11 matches in just over a month to secure our season’s ambitions. There’s almost no way that we lose out on the league title, but I wonder what targets the players and backroom staff have set themselves behind closed doors?
Both Wolves’ 103 points for League One and Reading’s 106 for the EFL (and English professional football) are still within reach. But it might be simply too many games to handle.
Wolves were knocked out of all other competitions by the 19th of November in their record breaking season. Reading didn’t have the EFL Trophy fixtures to contend with, and were knocked out of the League Cup in November where they lost 3-0 to Arsenal, and the FA Cup in February where a replay at St. Andrews saw goals from Mikael Forssell and Julian Gray prevent their progression. When all is said and done, we’ll have played 60 matches; six more than Reading and nine more than Wolves.
We’ve got 30 points left to play for, and require 21 to reach 104 and claim the League One record. 24 reaches 107 and beats Reading’s EFL record. That means that winning 7 out of 10 (or 6 wins and 3 draws) beats Wolves, and that feels reasonable. I’d expect Blues to win over 50% of our remaining games as we’ve only lost three times in the league this season, and even if that becomes 4, there’s still a decent chance.
But Reading’s might just be a game too far. It’d require 8 wins out of 10, or 7 wins and not losing another game. I’m not saying it’s impossible – we’ve got to play some of the weakest sides in the league during this time – but we will be playing a lot of football, and we will be coming up against a few sides fighting for their lives. While Shrewsbury, Crawley and Cambridge are all but confirmed to be relegated, Bristol Rovers, Burton and Peterborough may all need to win to try and secure their League One position next season. Blackpool are a drawing machine at home too, with 18 played and 11 draws, which could be important when so many wins are required.
We saw last season when we beat Coventry 3-0 how a trip to Wembley can distract a squad and cause them to lose against a relegation threatened side. Although, we’ve got the funny situation where our league opponents preceding the Wembley trip happen to be the very same side that we’ll play a few days later under the arch, so who knows how that dynamic will play out. That game will be a big factor. Amongst this run where keeping our focus and hunger will be important should we want to write our names into history, we’ve got a cup final that everybody at the club will be desperate for us to win.
There’s another couple of records we’re still in contention for too.
By beating the Posh at Wembley, we’d equal Bristol City’s record of three EFL Trophies.
If we did manage the 8 league wins required to break Reading’s points record, we’d equal Doncaster’s EFL (and English professional football) record of 33 for most wins in a season set way back in 1947, and it would take a huge 9 out of 10 wins to break it.
Failing that, Wolves managed 31 in their season, so, breaking the League One points record would also mean at least matching their record number of wins too if not beating it.
Ultimately, none of this really matters too much. The goal was to get back to the Championship as soon as possible, and according to Opta, we’re 99.99% likely to do so. The bare minimum is in touching distance and it’s still March. If we did the double it’s a huge achievement; only 4 sides have done so since the conception of the EFL Trophy in the 81/82 season, and we’d be the first to do it twice.
But as we’ve been continually reminded throughout the season, we assembled the most expensive squad in League One history by quite a distance in the summer. We’ve gotten ourselves a chance to prove that it’s also the best League One squad to ever be assembled. We could set English football records that won’t be beaten in a long, long time. Chris Davies, his staff and his players have an opportunity to cement themselves in history and surely they’ll be aiming to do just that.
The season’s not over yet. As always, we must keep right on, and we could achieve truly impressive things.