There’s no better time to review our start and look ahead than a weekend with no Blues game and at the time of the first international break of the season, Blues have made a positive start.
Despite all the discussion throughout the summer about the shock we might face, it hasn’t materialised in the opening fixtures. Blues have picked up 10 points from a possible 12 and sit third in the table. However, looking ahead to our next set of games, could we be in for a surprise just around the corner?
While opinions on the way Blues have played so far may differ, I don’t think anyone would complain about our points tally. We’ve picked up three points in every league game since the opening day draw against Reading, and we couldn’t have asked for much more at this stage.
It was always going to be more challenging in the early stages of the season compared to the latter stages. Blues have signed 17 new players and offloaded a similar number over the summer, with the transfer activity continuing into the first few competitive games. We’ve had an incredible window, but such a high turnover always means that fluidity in play wouldn’t be there from day one. Despite that, we’ve managed to secure a point against Reading, beat Wycombe more comfortably than the scoreline suggests, force mistakes to win at Orient, and grab a last-minute winner in our league return to St Andrews against Wigan.
Although the Walsall game is still fresh in the memory, I don’t think we should be too concerned. Blues were missing eight players on that day, gave starts to three players who had been at the club for less than a week, and still managed to create enough chances to win the game.
It’s entirely fair to say that, in another world, we might not have received that last-minute penalty against Reading, and the ball might not have dropped nicely to Scott Wright for a winning goal on his debut. Perhaps we’d then have a different outlook on the start we’ve made. But, as the adage goes, winning games when not playing at your best is a sign of a good team.
I must admit I’ve been surprised by the number of problems our opponents have caused us so far. Reading were incredibly organised and arguably unlucky to come away with just a point. Leyton Orient took a very aggressive approach, which earned them a goal and a couple more half-chances. The Wigan game was very tight until they went down to 10 men, and Blues made a couple of substitutions, notably Marc Leonard, who had a superb impact on our passing play. And Walsall, despite facing 20+ shots and having just 19% of the ball, defended very well in an organised shape and caused Blues problems on the counter.
It’s worth noting that we have yet to face a particularly difficult League One opponent. Every side we’ve played is expected to finish roughly mid-table or lower. That’s not to discredit Blues—there have been plenty of tough games. Fans of other League One sides warned us about games away to the likes of Wycombe and Leyton Orient, and we can see why. But we had enough to get through them and avoid an early defeat.
Alfie May and Jay Stansfield
So far, Blues have played out from the back very successfully, with only one notable mistake that led to a goal against Leyton Orient. In most cases, we’ve played out comfortably and beaten the opposition press. We look very confident on the ball, and we’ve pressed very well out of possession (according to Blues Breakdown on Twitter/X, Blues rank top for “PPDA”—a measure of how successfully and frequently a team presses https://x.com/blues_breakdown/status/1831815136438595594).
However, where we’ve struggled to find our rhythm is in the final third. We’ve not created a plethora of clear-cut chances in any of our games so far, despite having plenty of possession. I’m confident this is something that will improve over time as players settle in and Chris Davies finds solutions to unlock defences, but it has been a challenge so far.
On deadline day, the club signed Jay Stansfield on a permanent deal for a club-record and league-record fee. We know the prolific striker well from his loan last season. But with Alfie May starting the season by scoring in each of our four league games, it has created another puzzle for Chris Davies to solve: how do you fit May and Stansfield into the same team? And could this be key to unlocking our attacking play?
Against Walsall, we saw Stansfield play up top and May just behind him, dropping back to link play, and eventually ending up on the wing in the final stages of the game. It’s safe to say that didn’t work out on the night.
I will always defer to the superior knowledge and acumen of people in the game, but to me, the way to make it work is by playing Stansfield on the right and May up top, where he has been so successful so far. Stansfield can occupy the spaces between full-back and centre-back, while Laird (or hopefully, Sampsted) provides width on the right-hand side. If we can get both men into the box, it should cause nightmares for opposition defenders. Stansfield will provide a threat at the near post area where many of our crosses have landed, and May can use his intelligent movement to find space for a shot.
I’m sure this is something Davies will be working tirelessly on, and the international break has provided him with the breathing room to come up with a solution. I look forward to seeing how this plays out when we return to club football.
Looking Ahead
When examining the fixture list, I’ve identified the next run of 5-7 games as particularly tough.
Wrexham have started the season on fire and currently sit top of the table after a 3-0 win this weekend against rivals Shrewsbury. Rotherham, relegated with us, have had a poor start, but Steve Evans is a good manager at this level, and I expect them to pick up form. Peterborough are always around the playoffs, though they may find that more challenging this season. Huddersfield are second favourites for promotion behind Blues. Charlton have lost Alfie May but have started the season well with another top manager at this level in Nathan Jones. And while Shrewsbury (EFL Trophy) and Cambridge shouldn’t pose too much difficulty, Lincoln are a solid side at home, and Bolton just missed out on promotion last season.
It’s a very tough run, probably one of the hardest that League One could offer us. And it’s not coming at the best of times. It’s no secret that Blues are still gelling, scraping through some games on the scoreboard, and we’ve already picked up an injury to a key player in Ethan Laird. He divides opinion due to his final ball, but he’s been a key part of how Blues have attacked so far this season. Thankfully, due to our excellent transfer window, Alfons Sampsted should ensure we’re not too weak in his absence. That being said, there’s almost no doubt we will miss Laird.
It will be interesting to see how Sampsted fills his boots or if we change things up tactically to get the most out of our side. We signed Alex Cochrane as an attacking full-back from Hearts, and so far his ventures forward have been sporadic. I wonder if we might see more of this, with Sampsted sitting deeper, especially while Laird returns to fitness.
Next Up
First up is Wrexham back at St Andrews on Monday night, live on Sky. This game may attract one of the largest TV audiences in the EFL this season, with Wrexham’s documentary drawing plenty of fans and Blues making headlines throughout the summer. This will be a tough game. Yes, Wrexham are a promoted League Two side, but they are settled and comfortable in how they want to play. Phil Parkinson has been at the club for several years and has made them an aggressive, dogged side that has earned back-to-back promotions.
I expect Blues to dominate possession, likely having over 70% by the full-time whistle. In League One stats, Blues are top in average possession with 68%, and Wrexham are second-bottom, only ahead of Shrewsbury with 39%. Yet, Wrexham have scored more goals than any League One side so far with 11 and have registered the fifth-most shots in the league. Defensively, they have only conceded 2 goals (second to Stockport). They are a very effective side and will be happy for Blues to have plenty of the ball while remaining confident they can cause us problems and score. We’ve certainly not been strong at the back, having yet to keep a clean sheet in any game except Charlton in the League Cup.
It will prove a tough test. Wrexham may view this as an opportunity to measure up and see how far they’ve come, and for us, this is an early test to see if we can click into gear and pick up another valuable three points at home. We’ll need to shift up a gear to achieve that. When we’ve moved the ball quickly, we’ve looked menacing, and we need to maintain that for longer periods in games to create more chances.
If I were a betting man, I’d wager on a defeat in the next run of games. I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but I believe this run will be our toughest test of the season. By the time we face another similarly tricky run in January, I believe we’ll be putting in better performances and showing our superior quality. For now, I’d be happy with a return of 10 points from the next 5 games.
Without wanting to sound overly negative, it’s important to not have too big of a meltdown when (or if…) a defeat comes. I’m sure fans of other clubs will be keen to jump down our throats, as they have done already despite no defeat on record. But we are never going to go through the entire season undefeated, and we shouldn’t panic when that day comes.
We will come good in our style of play. We’ve recruited a whole new squad suited to play this system, and it will bear fruition come May 2025. Trust in the players and the manager, let’s continue to give them our fantastic support, and let’s hope for another successful run of games.
If we get through this test looking rosy, 100 goals 100 points Birmingham City will definitely be on the cards.